Projo Sox Blog

And Joe McDonald breaks it down and tells us why, giving the Rays the edge in such areas as starting pitching and the Sox the nod offensively. In the end, he thinks it has the potential to be "a classic series."

Others agree, at least with the "it'll be close" part. AccuScore ran 10,000 series simulations and says the Sox have a 53 percent chance to beat the Rays. (yahoo.com) Baseball Musings' David Pinto analyzes the series and also says the Sox are the favorite, but he only gives them a 51 percent chance of winning.

The networks are delighted, since it figures to make for must-see TV. The Boston Globe's Nancy Marrapese-Burrell talks to TBS analyst Buck Martinez, who thinks it'll be a compelling, competitive series.

Classic. Compelling. Competitive. What more can you ask?

HERE'S ONE THING THE SOX CAN ASK: A strong effort from Daisuke Matsuzaka, tonight's Game One starter. But Gerry Callahan says the Sox have no idea what they'll get out of Dice-K. (Boston Herald)

READY TO GO: The Red Sox announced their ALCS roster yesterday afternoon and Kevin McNamara reports Mike Timlin is on it this time. McNamara also profiles Mark Kotsay, who'll be seeing lots more playing time now that Mike Lowell is out.

BUILDING HISTORY: Tony Massarotti profiles Terry Francona, who is constructing a portfolio as strong as any manager in baseball. (Boston Globe)

KEYS TO THE SERIES: Sean McAdam says there are five of them, and lists what they are. (Boston Herald)

THE BIGGEST KEY: Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports thinks it's David Ortiz.

THE GOOD NEW DAYS: The Herald's Steve Buckley notes October and the postseason have a whole different meaning hereabouts than they had not so long ago.

AND THE HERO OF THOSE DAYS IS . . . Jonathan Papelbon, whom the Herald's John Tomase calls the Red Sox' Mr. October.

THE PROCESS: John Powers of the Boston Globe has a nice piece on Theo Epstein and the new Red Sox' management philosophy.

WHY, IN MY DAY . . . Management phil . . . ? Wha'? Hah? Jim Rice says they didn't need any high-falutin' scoutin' reports or fancy-schmancy matchup strategies back when he was playing.

CRASH DAVIS WOULD BE PROUD: Jacoby Ellsbury strikes every chord on the cliche keyboard -- "This is do or die . . . So it's one game at a time" -- in his latest blog entry.

TURNAROUND: McNamara writes about the Rays' turnaround this year. McDonald talks to an American League scout who breaks down the Tampa Bay roster player by player.

REMEMBER WHEN? Julio Lugo and Kevin Cash do. McDonald reports they played in Tampa when the team was known as the Devil Rays and was the polar opposite of what it is now.

I'D TRADE ALL OF MY TOMORROWS FOR ONE SINGLE YESTERDAY: In that spirit, Chad Finn picks his all-time Tampa Bay team and wishes the Sox were facing those guys instead of the ones they're actually playing.

WE KNEW IT: McDonald and McNamara talk to Evan Longoria, who says he and his teammates had a feeling they'd be seeing the Red Sox again.

DO YOU THINK YOU'RE WHAT THEY SAY YOU ARE? B.J. Upton calls Evan Longoria "Jesus in cleats." (SI.com)

JACKSON IN, HINSKE OUT, PERCIVAL NOWHERE: The St. Petersburg Times reports the Rays have taken Eric Hinske off the ALCS roster in favor of Edwin Jackson, and that Troy Percival remains in limbo, still inactive for the postseason. Hinske, now denied the chance to play against his former team, has no comment on the decision . . . that he's willing to share, anyway.

LOCAL CONNECTION: The Rays' Cliff Floyd was childhood friends with the Patriots' Rodney Harrison. (Boston Herald)

IT WORKS! If you ignore a fallacy in Step Four, an assisant math professor at Michigan State proves that 9 really does equal 8 (yahoo.com) . . . which is what Joe Maddon has been saying all year.

THE DEVIL YOU SAY: David Chalk of Bugs & Cranks is heartened by Joe Biden's decision -- some call it a gaffe, but David thinks otherwise -- "to refer to our beloved Tampa Bay Devil Rays by their true full name."

THE NON-LOCAL LOCAL ANGLE: We did separate stories on them yesterday, and today the Times looks at Rhode Islanders Dan Wheeler and Rocco Baldelli playing against the hometown team.

ONE MORE TIME: The Times' John Romano takes one last look at the June fight between the teams and says it was James Shields' purpose pitch to Coco Crisp, and not the brawl itself, that brought the Rays together. Marc Topkin goes over the history of bad blood between Boston and Tampa Bay.

CHANGING SIDES: The Tampa Tribune prints a piece from Bob Chick, who grew up as a Red Sox fan and was rooting for them as recently as 2004 but whose heart has been won over by the Rays.

THE NEW TRADITION: The Globe's Dan Shaughnessy notes there isn't exactly a whole lot of sporting history between Boston and Tampa Bay. David Ortiz tells McDonald and McNamara it's strange to be in Tampa in October.

ODDS MAKERS: Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts reports that this is the tenth pairing of a wild-card team against the winner of its own division in LCS history and the division champs have won five of the nine meetings so far.

GOOD 'OL WHOZIS: Dennis Eckersley did a nice interview with Big League Stew about broadcasting the playoffs for TBS, but I had to smile when he referred to Tom Caron -- whom he's been sitting next to on the NESN set for how many years now? -- as "the guy I work with."

NLCS, GAME ONE: Derek Lowe looked nigh unhittable for five innings, but it all unraveled for him and the Dodgers in the sixth (Los Angeles Times) as the Phillies took the early lead in the NLCS with a 3-2 victory. (Philadelphia Daily News) The struggling Chase Utley (left) broke through with a two-run homer that tied the game in the sixth (Philadelphia Inquirer), and Pat Burrell followed with a solo shot a few batters later, continuing his evolution from Philly scapegoat to Philly hero in the eyes of the fans. (Philadelphia Daily News) Neither ball probably would have been a home run at Dodger Stadium, but Lowe said that doesn't matter because "we're playing the same park, too." (Los Angeles Times) The Daily News' Phil Sheridan thinks the Phils found their 'inner Manny': loose, carefree . . . oblivious to pressure."

MISSED OPPORTUNITY: Foxsports.com's Ken Rosenthal says the Dodgers' failure to hold the lead and win Game One could prove costly.

SOME CONTROVERSY: After all of Tim McCarver's pre-series ranting against Manny Ramirez, I was surprised -- as was ShysterBall's Craig Calcaterra, who goes into the detail on his live blog of Game One -- that it took Fox 4 1/2 innings to bring up the topic that had consumed the Internet, talk radio and cable TV on Wednesday and part of Thursday. Old friend Allan Wood looks into the Manny-didn't-know-which-knee-hurt tale and concludes that, due to the startling lack of evidence, "this story is a myth."

CIVIC DUTY: The Times' T.J. Simers, saying "it's kind of the responsibility of the Phillies and Rays to step aside in the best interests of entertaining baseball," worries that if this keeps up, we won't get that Dodgers-Red Sox World Series everyone's looking forward to.

COMPETING VIEWS: Baseball Analysts' Patrick Sullivan notes that while both old friend Rob Neyer (espn.com) and The Good Phight's David S. Cohen like the Phillies in this series, he's going with the Dodgers in six.

THE FINAL WORD: AccuScore gives the Dodgers a 53%-47% chance to win the series. (yahoo.com)

TEAM FIRST: Andruw Jones says he's not with the Dodgers during their playoff run because he doesn't want to jinx them. (Los Angeles Times)

You got it wrong, Anduw. You'd only jinx them if you were playing.

WAIT A MINUTE. I THOUGHT THE YANKEES AND THE METS HATED EACH OTHER? A few days ago, someone -- and you'll have to forgive me, but a) I've forgotten who and b) I can't find the link at the moment -- proposed an Alex Rodriguez-for-David Wright trade. Now the blog Was Watching reports that there's a Carlos Beltran-for-Robinson Cano-and-others rumor floating about. Peter Abraham says the trade is contingent on "Omar Minaya smoking a lot of crystal meth and the Wilpons spending a weekend out of cell phone range. (LoHud Yankees Blog)

ACID FLASHBACK: Ian O'Connor, writing for foxsports.com, says that -- with the Red Sox and Joe Torre both in their respective league finals -- this is the worst postseason for the Yankees since 1986, when the Sox and Mets played in the World Series.

PROCLAIMING HIS INNOCENCE: Mets reliever Ambiorix Burgos will be jailed for three months in the Dominican Republic while awaiting trial after being charged in a hit-and-run accident that killed two women, but he's confident he'll be acquitted because "I haven't done anything." (AP via projo.com)

PASSAGES: Ex-big league pitcher Bruce Dal Canton has died at age 66. (espn.com)

HERE AND THERE: A.J. Burnett apparently is in no hurry to talk contract with the Blue Jays (Toronto Star) . . . The Twins will bring back Mike Redmond for another year (mlb.com) . . . Mark Cuban says the ecomonic crisis has slowed the sale of the Cubs. (Chicago Sun-Times)

OLD FRIENDS: Thanks to Craig Calcaterra for the tip that Cory Bailey has been implicated in a game-fixing scandal in Taiwan. (Taipei Times)

AND FINALLY . . . Of all the annoying commercials that have looped and relooped and relooped some more through the baseball playoffs so far -- I'm pretty sure "Viva Viagra!" is the soundtrack that plays at the gates of hell, and can someone please tell me who's this guy Frank? -- the Los Angeles Times' Houston Mitchell finds the DirecTV ad to be the most disturbing, since it's an ode to an almost-forgotten 28-year-old movie and features a 12-year-old actress who died in 1988.

-- ART MARTONE